Barho Advisory
Test the technical assumption your investment thesis depends on.
I identify the technical or operational assumption that could change the valuation, deal structure or decision - and assess whether the available evidence is sufficient for the next deal step.
For PE and M&A teams testing materials, manufacturing, technology or China capability, sourcing or market-entry claims before terms harden or the transaction is signed.
Not sure yet? Start with the Reframe Call.
A focused, no-charge 20-minute conversation to establish whether your decision contains a testable load-bearing assumption and whether the Diagnostic is the right tool. No preparation required.
What the Reframe Diagnostic tests
Many industrial investment and market-entry decisions depend on one technical or operational assumption that has received less scrutiny than its importance warrants. The Diagnostic identifies that assumption, assesses it against the available evidence and determines what must be tested next.
5 steps. 1 assumption. 1 decision-relevant conclusion.
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1
Decision at stake
State the decision in one sentence. If it cannot be stated clearly, that is already a finding.
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2
Load-bearing assumption
Identify the one technical or operational assumption that carries the most weight and has been tested least. Not a list - the one that matters.
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3
Evidence threshold
Define what observable evidence would confirm or refute the assumption. If no credible threshold can be defined, that is itself a risk signal.
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4
Consequence of failure
Determine what breaks if the assumption fails: the decision's rationale, its structure, or only its terms. This determines urgency.
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5
Next decisive test
One action that reduces assumption risk most before commitments become binding. Not a study - a bounded test with a decision-relevant result.
What you receive
A one-page Assumption Test Map.
- The decision at stake
- The load-bearing assumption
- The evidence threshold
- The consequence if it fails
- The next decisive test
- Evidence status and its implication for the next deal step
And one conclusion:
Sufficiently supported
The assumption is sufficiently supported for the next deal step.
Conditionally supported
The assumption holds under conditions. Make them explicit in the LOI, DD scope or deal terms.
Material evidence gap
The assumption cannot be assessed without further data. Define the test before signing.
Contradicted by available evidence
The available evidence contradicts the assumption. Do not rely on it without reframing the valuation, structure or thesis.
The Reframe Diagnostic identifies the assumption carrying the decision and assesses how well the available evidence supports it. Where the Diagnostic defines the decisive test, the Verification Sprint runs it - with data room access, management interviews, and technical review before signing.
What the Diagnostic is designed to catch
The relevant failure patterns are rarely made explicit in the data room. They require a practitioner who has seen where apparently sound technical assessments break.
- Capital intensity mistaken for a defensible moat
- Temporary scarcity margins mistaken for structural differentiation
- Technical approval mistaken for lasting customer lock-in
- Contractual pass-through mistaken for pricing power
- Sustainability claims without measurable customer value
- China exposure assessed as cost competition rather than capability risk
Domain expertise
28 years as a practitioner in materials science, automotive, tire technology, and specialty polymers - at Continental and FORVIA, including 4 years based in Shanghai. Doctorate in organic chemistry from Leibniz University Hannover, including research at Imperial College London.
Relevant technical and industrial expertise covers:
- Material performance claims and supplier qualification
- China manufacturing capabilities and market entry assumptions
- Automotive supply chain viability and Tier 1/Tier 2 positioning
- Sustainability and regulatory compliance narratives
- R&D pipeline credibility and technology readiness
Terms
EUR 2,900 fixed fee. Includes review of the submitted materials, preparation of the evidence assessment, a 90-minute decision session and the one-page Assumption Test Map. Send the decision and the supporting material before the session.
Direct bookings are subject to a short fit check before confirmation. If the case is not suitable for the Diagnostic, no fee is charged.
No recommendation without diagnosis.